The Iberian Peninsula is facing one of the greatest energy and industrial opportunities of the coming decades. And Portugal has just sent a very clear signal to the market.

The Portuguese Government has published the new Order No. 5824/2026, through which it instructs the Direção-Geral de Energia e Geologia (DGEG) to develop, within a period of 90 days, a specific remuneration and incentive model for biomethane production, accompanied by a stable calendar of calls for the 2026–2030 period. (dgeg.gov.pt)

The model may incorporate mechanisms such as: auctions, regulated tariffs, combined incentives, and differentiated schemes according to project maturity, installed capacity, or the type of raw material used. (dgeg.gov.pt)

Beyond the technical detail, Portugal’s move has enormous strategic relevance because it reflects a substantive shift in the development of European biomethane.

Europe is no longer debating potential. It is debating the speed of execution.

For years, the European energy sector has spoken of the enormous potential of biomethane:

• to reduce external energy dependence,

• to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify,

• to properly manage agricultural and livestock waste,

• and to generate economic and industrial activity in rural environments.

That debate is now over. The question now is not whether #biomethane will be relevant in Europe. The question is which countries will be able to deploy a solid, bankable, and socially integrated value chain first. Portugal seems to have understood this new environment well, in contrast to exclusive and excluding bets on decarbonization through electrification. All pathways are necessary in the energy transition.

The order itself recognizes that regulatory predictability and remuneration mechanisms are essential to convert national raw materials into real production capacity at the service of energy sovereignty. (diariodarepublica.pt) It is an important message: potential is not enough and doing nothing is not sufficient.

The European Commission has already positioned biomethane as a strategic vector within the REPowerEU plan, setting a target of 35 bcm (billion cubic meters) in 2030, equivalent to about 10% of current European natural gas consumption (350-380 TWh/year)

Europe needs to multiply its current biomethane production capacity by more than five before 2030. Current European production is around ~65–70 TWh/year; therefore, it needs to:

• accelerate permits

• mobilize investment

• multiply plants

• activate social acceptance

These are our resources and we must take advantage of them.

Currently, Europe has approximately: more than 1,500 operational biomethane plants

and more than:20,000 biogas installations Leadership today lies in: France, Germany, Denmark, Italy, and the Netherlands. Spain is still far behind its potential.

Spain is not lagging behind due to a lack of resources, but because of historical deployment speed, strategic minimalism, and the lack of a clear, objective, homogeneous, and coordinated deployment framework.

Spain has one of the highest biomethane production potentials in Europe thanks to: its agricultural and livestock capacity, its agro-industrial fabric, the availability of organic waste, and a gas network that, although limited, is prepared to integrate renewable gases.

According to various sectoral and European estimates, Spain could reach a production potential close to 160–180 TWh/year of biomethane by 2030–2050, placing it among the largest potential producers in Europe.

Portugal, although with a smaller territorial and agro-industrial dimension, has an estimated potential of approximately 10–15 TWh/year, especially linked to agro-industrial, livestock, and urban waste.

The difference, however, is not only in the available resource. The difference is starting to be in the speed of deployment.

France demonstrates that regulatory speed completely changes the market

The French example is particularly relevant to understanding where Europe is headed. France has become the main European success case in accelerated biomethane deployment thanks to a combination of:

• Stable regulated tariffs

• State planning

• Administrative simplification

• Clear economic signals for producers and investors.

• Social normalization of its deployment

• Understanding that it is a model that incentivizes and improves its primary sector

• A gas network that is capillary and reaches everywhere

At the end of 2025, France already exceeded: more than 780 plants injecting biomethane into the grid

with an installed capacity exceeding: 15 TWh/year and an official target of:44 TWh of biomethane in 2030 within its new national energy planning. The French deployment speed has been especially significant:

• between 2021 and 2025, France managed to connect approximately 2 to 3 new plants per week,

• and currently has more than 1,500 projects in different stages of development.

In France, various sectoral analyses currently place the average development of new biomethane projects between: 24 and 36 months including: permits, financing, construction, and grid connection.

The European biomethane industry itself estimates that, in general, projects in Europe currently require between 3 and 6 years, with administrative simplification being precisely one of the factors explaining the French competitive advantage.

France thus demonstrates that when there is:

• regulatory stability,

• economic predictability,

• and a coordinated strategy between administration, gas network, and territory, deployment can accelerate exponentially.

And that completely changes the industrial dimension of the sector. Because the European biomethane race is no longer measured solely by resource potential. It is measured by real execution capacity.

“France did not have significantly more resources than Spain. What it developed first was the framework capable of converting it into an industry.”

European comparison of biomethane development (March 2026)

The comparison clearly reflects a growing trend in Europe:

• France leads the industrial deployment thanks to more than a decade of regulatory stability and support tariffs.

• Portugal is accelerating rapidly through strategic planning, mandatory targets, and administrative simplification.

• Spain has a greater resource potential, but still needs to transform that potential into execution speed and real installed capacity.

The difference is starting to lie in the ability to deploy projects of proven quality with speed, legal certainty, and territorial acceptance.

#BIOMETHANE #REGULATION

Sources used

Sedigas – Operational plants in Spain (January 2026 update): (Biomethane: Sedigas)

El País – More than 200 projects under evaluation in Spain: (El País)

Portugal Biomethane Action Plan 2024–2040: (BIOREF)

Government of Portugal – regulatory simplification and renewable gases strategy: (Government of Portugal)

European overview and French PPE3 targets: (Haya Energy Solutions)

European REPowerEU target (35 bcm in 2030): (promindsa.com)

Overview of the French sector and official targets: (enea-consulting.com)

Number of plants and French deployment rate: (Gas Renovable)

Estimated project development time in Europe: (BIP Europe)

Diário da República – Order No. 5824/2026

DGEG Portugal – Remuneration and incentive model for biomethane