The Netherlands: creating demand to accelerate supply

The Dutch proposal is based on a simple premise: for investment to exist, a market must first exist. The new system establishes a blending obligation for gas traders, who must annually certify a certain amount of biomethane using Green Gas Units (GGUs). The mechanism will progressively increase to achieve reductions equivalent to 2.85 million tons of CO₂ per year between 2031 and 2035. In energy terms, this is approximately equivalent to:

• 840 million cubic meters of biomethane annually.
• Around 5.5% of the gas supplied to sectors covered by ETS2.
• A volume equivalent to 10% of the LNG currently imported for domestic consumption in the Netherlands.

Most significantly, the Dutch Government explicitly recognizes that the objective is not solely climatic. The regulation simultaneously pursues:

• Reducing external energy dependence.
• Strengthening security of supply.
• Developing a national industrial value chain.
• Fostering the integration of the European biomethane market.
• Providing stable and predictable investment signals.

In other words, biomethane is no longer considered solely an environmental tool but becomes an industrial and energy policy tool.

Spain: extraordinary potential yet to be developed

The comparison with Spain is particularly interesting. Our country has one of the greatest biomethane production potentials in Europe thanks to the size of its livestock, agri-food, and organic waste management sectors. However, for years, the sector’s development has faced a fundamental challenge: the absence of robust demand creation mechanisms.

We started the year with the approval of Royal Decree-Law 7/2026, which for the first time incorporates a system of mandatory quotas for renewable gases. The proposals currently put forward include indicative targets of the order of:

2028 —— 0,5%

2029 —— 1,2%

2030 —— 1,8%

2035 —— 6%

Beyond the specific details that the regulatory development may finally adopt, the conceptual shift is evident: Spain is beginning to evolve from a model based exclusively on supply towards a model where demand is also boosted.

If we compare Spain and the Netherlands, the paradox is evident.

Spain has considerably greater resource potential than the Netherlands, but the Netherlands has advanced faster in building regulatory instruments capable of transforming that potential into effective demand.

If Spain were to achieve a penetration level similar to the Dutch target for the early 2030s (around 5-6% of gas consumption), the national biomethane market would have to multiply more than tenfold compared to the current situation. This would mean increasing from approximately 1.4 TWh to over 18 TWh of renewable production annually.

The comparison between Spain and the Netherlands is particularly revealing. Today, the Netherlands produces approximately two to three times more biomethane than Spain (around 3.4 TWh versus 1.4 TWh annually), despite having significantly lower resource potential. However, while the Dutch technical potential is around 20 TWh annually, Spain far exceeds 40 TWh in a conservative estimate and could reach much higher figures according to various sectoral studies. The current production volume of the Netherlands is similar to what 150-200 average Spanish plants would produce. And yet, the Dutch government has decided to create mandatory demand through blending quotas. The Government explicitly assumes that biomethane is a tool for:

• • energy sovereignty,
  • reduction of LNG imports,
  • climate compliance,
  • and support for industrial competitiveness.

The difference is not in the available resources, but in the speed of transforming that potential into real production. The Netherlands already produces approximately 17% of its estimated potential, while Spain has barely begun to develop a very small fraction of its own. This explains why creating demand through blending obligations has become a strategic priority for the Dutch Government: the goal is not only to increase production, but to offer a stable regulatory signal that accelerates investment decisions.

If Spain manages to combine its extraordinary availability of agricultural and agro-industrial resources with effective regulatory mechanisms, it could, in the medium term, surpass the current production of leading countries like the Netherlands and become one of the main European biomethane markets. The challenge is no longer to identify the potential, but to deploy it quickly, with legal certainty and territorial acceptance.

The Netherlands demonstrates that leadership in biomethane does not depend on who has more biomass, but on who first creates the conditions to convert it into renewable energy.

#Biomethane #Regulation